1. Even the Titanic was vulnerable. So the Chicago Cubs have lost four games in a row after the Miami Marlins beat them 3-2 behind two solo home runs off Jon Lester and a run in the eighth off Pedro Strop. The Cubs' projected win total has gone from 114 to 107 with the losing skid, and reaching the season wins record of 116 is becoming increasingly improbable. In fact, if the Cubs finish the first half with 10 wins a row, that gets them to 57-24 -- back to a 114-win pace.

If anything, this shows how remarkable the 2001 Seattle Mariners were when they won those 116 games. They did, however, lose four in a row at one point: In games 147 to 150, they lost to the Angels and then got swept in Oakland (the A's won 102 games that year). Here's an amazing note, though: They hadn't lostthree in a row until that four-game skid. Here's Seattle's season broken into 10-game stretches: 7-3, 9-1, 7-3, 8-2, 7-3, 9-1, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4, 7-3, 8-2, 7-3, 7-3, 6-4, 6-4, 9-1, 1-1. The Cubs, meanwhile, have already had two stretches of 5-5.

A lot has been said about the Cubs' run differential: It now sits at plus-162, so they've actually underperformed relative to their expected win-loss record(based on runs scored and allowed) by seven wins. That's easily the largest gap in the majors (the Mariners are six below their expected record). Another way to calculate expected record is BaseRuns, which uses bases gained and allowed. In that area, the Cubs had underperformed by just three wins heading into Thursday. What does this mean about projecting the Cubs moving forward? It's hard to say. You can make an argument that the Cubs have been a little unlucky. They're 9-12 in one-run games, so you can argue that they haven't optimally distributed their runs across all their games or maybe there's a certain vulnerability that shows up in close games (which, presumably, are more often against better teams). They're 25-4 in blowout games (decided by five or more runs), an .862 winning percentage. The Mariners went 34-10 in blowout games, a .773 percentage, but went 26-12 in one-run games. The Cubs may end up playing more blowout games because of the lack of parity in the National League this year, and that may skew their run differential over the long haul.

Of course, what's happened so far is in the bank. Run differential doesn't determine the standings -- wins do. If the Cubs have any chance at getting back on a record pace, they have to win these close games. The more likely scenario is they end up battling the San Francisco Giants or Washington Nationals for the league's best record, not chasing down the 2001 Mariners.